Two teams battling to remain in the Premier League will lock horns at Vicarage Road on Saturday afternoon, as Watford welcome Leeds United.
Watford are currently 19th in the table, three points behind 17th-placed Everton, while Leeds occupy 16th spot, six points ahead of 18th-placed Burnley, having played two games more than the Clarets.
Match preview
© Reuters
Watford gave their survival hopes a boost by beating Southampton 2-1 on March 13, but they could not build on the win over the Saints, losing 2-0 away to title-challenging Liverpool last time out.
The Hornets have picked up just 22 points from their 30 Premier League matches this season, which has left them in 19th spot in the table, just three points behind 17th-placed Everton, who have a game in hand.
There is more than enough time for Roy Hodgson's side to escape the bottom three, and a win this weekend would pull Leeds further into the mix, while they could also move level on points with Everton if the Toffees lose against Manchester United in Saturday's early start.
Watford have incredibly lost their last eight home league matches, though, with their last success in front of their own supporters coming against Man United in Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's final match in charge last November.
The Hertfordshire outfit now have back-to-back home fixtures against Leeds and Brentford before heading to Manchester City, while they will also welcome Burnley to Vicarage Road at the end of the month.
© Reuters
Leeds have actually picked up seven points from their last three Premier League matches, beating Norwich and Wolverhampton Wanderers before drawing 1-1 with Southampton last weekend.
The Whites are still in the relegation mix, though, sitting 16th in the table, just six points clear of 18th-placed Burnley, who have two games in hand on Jesse Marsch's side.
Leeds have won two, drawn one and lost two of their five matches since Marsch's arrival as head coach, and there have certainly been positive signs under the American, but a defeat at Vicarage Road this weekend would be a setback for the club.
The three-time English champions have the fourth-worst away record in the Premier League this season, picking up just 13 points from 15 matches, but they are travelling to a Watford team with the worst home record in England's top flight this term, having claimed just seven points from 14 matches.
Leeds recorded a 1-0 win over Watford when the two teams locked horns at Elland Road earlier this season, and this will be their first league fixture at Vicarage Road since August 2014, when the Hornets ran out 4-1 winners in the Championship.
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- L
- L
- L
- L
- W
- W
- D
Team News
© Reuters
Watford have no fresh injury concerns heading into this weekend's contest, and Kwadwo Baah is also back in training after recovering from an ankle problem.
Nicolas Nkoulou is available for selection, meanwhile, having completed his recovery from a long-term hamstring problem, and the defender could be back in the squad for this match.
Head coach Hodgson could potentially make just the one change to the side that started against Liverpool last time out, with Emmanuel Dennis replacing Joao Pedro in the final third of the field.
As for Leeds, Tyler Roberts, Junior Firpo, Patrick Bamford and Jamie Shackleton remain unavailable for selection despite making strong progress in their recoveries.
Joe Gelhardt is also expected to train on Friday and therefore be available this weekend, with the forward bidding to overcome a thigh problem.
Kalvin Phillips, who is currently being linked with a move to Manchester United, is in line for a spot in the starting XI this weekend, but there are unlikely to be any changes in the front four, with Raphinha, Rodrigo and Jack Harrison expected to play just behind Daniel James.
Watford possible starting lineup:
Foster; Femenia, Kabasele, Samir, Kamara; Sissoko, Louza, Kucka; Sarr, Dennis, Hernandez
Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Cooper, Dallas; Phillips, Forshaw; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Harrison; James
We say: Watford 1-1 Leeds United
Both sides are in desperate need of the three points at a vital stage of the season, but we are finding it difficult to separate them here. There has not actually been a draw between these two sides since December 2013, but we are predicting a stalemate at Vicarage Road on Saturday afternoon.
Top tip
Matt Law
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Leeds United win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Watford had a probability of 35.41% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Leeds United win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.5%) and 0-2 (6.44%). The likeliest Watford win was 1-0 (8.74%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.19%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Leeds United would win this match.
