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Aston Villa logo
Premier League | Gameweek 24
Feb 9, 2022 at 8pm UK
Villa Park
Leeds logo

Aston Villa
3 - 3
Leeds

Coutinho (30'), Ramsey (38', 43')
Konsa (70'), Cash (90')
Konsa (87')
FT(HT: 3-2)
James (9', 45+2'), Llorente (63')
Dallas (45'), James (80'), Rodrigo (90+7')

Preview: Aston Villa vs. Leeds United - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's Premier League clash between Aston Villa and Leeds United, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Aston Villa and Leeds United mark their returns to action following the international break with Wednesday's Premier League battle in the West Midlands.

Steven Gerrard's men saw off Everton 1-0 at Goodison Park before the international break, while the Whites went down by the same scoreline to Newcastle United.


Match preview

Aston Villa manager Steven Gerrard on January 22, 2022© Reuters

Just as he had done two weeks before at Manchester United, Gerrard once again soaked in the atmosphere at Goodison Park as the home crowd made their feelings known towards the former Liverpool captain, and such hostility certainly appeared to galvanise the visiting squad.

Gerrard's fearless attitude translated into three points on the pitch, with all 5ft 8in of Emiliano Buendia rising highest to head home from Lucas Digne's corner before celebrating in front of the Toffees faithful, but projectiles launched in the direction of Villa's players from the crowd marred the joyous occasion.

Nevertheless, taking four points from their last two Premier League games before the break has given Villa some solid foundations to build on under Gerrard, whose side have a top-half finish in their sights as they occupy 11th spot in the rankings.

A late charge for Europe may be a bridge too far for the Lions, but a plethora of January arrivals will aim to keep the continental-chasing pack looking over their shoulder in the coming weeks as Villa seek to end a trend of inconsistent home form.

The hosts have not failed to score at Villa Park in the Premier League this season but have only posted two wins from their last seven in the top flight on familiar territory, with Wednesday's game surely a prime opportunity to improve on that underwhelming statistic.

Leeds United manager Marcelo Bielsa on January 22, 2022© Reuters

A far cry from the ever-exciting Leeds United of the 2020-21 season, Marcelo Bielsa's side regained some of their attacking bite in the earliest stages of 2022, but they were brought crashing back down to earth by a lowly Newcastle in front of their own fans.

Jonjo Shelvey's free kick 15 minutes from time condemned Leeds to a ninth defeat of the season at a time when they appeared to have turned a corner with back-to-back wins over Burnley and West Ham United, with the Magpies serving up a harsh dose of reality.

The 15th-placed Whites do still hold a seven-point lead above the bottom three, but it only takes a couple of results to not go their way for Leeds to be dragged into a bitter fight for survival, with away games not exactly their forte this season.

Indeed, Bielsa's men have won just two of their 10 league away matches in the 2021-22 season and have already shipped 23 goals in their 10 road fixtures - only Southampton and Norwich City possess worse records in that department.

Leeds ran out comfortable 3-0 winners at Villa Park in this fixture last season, but Dean Smith's Lions responded with a 1-0 victory at Elland Road in February 2021 thanks to Anwar El Ghazi's strike, with the first meeting between the two sides this term postponed due to COVID-19.

Aston Villa Premier League form:
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Aston Villa form (all competitions):
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • D
  • W

Leeds United Premier League form:
  • L
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • W
  • L

Leeds United form (all competitions):
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L



Team News

Aston Villa's Emiliano Buendia celebrates scoring their first goal with teammates as a bottle is thrown from the crowd on January 22, 2022© Reuters

Villa will soon be able to welcome Bertrand Traore back following his Africa Cup of Nations duties, and Leon Bailey is also edging closer to a return from a thigh injury but will not be involved just yet.

However, Marvelous Nakamba will be sidelined until the spring months as he battles back from a serious knee injury, and Villa boosted their defensive ranks further in January with the unforeseen capture of Calum Chambers from Arsenal.

Chambers is only likely to be considered for a place on the bench here, though, with Gerrard likely seeing no reason to alter a winning formula from the Goodison Park triumph. Attacker Trezeguet has also completed a loan move to Istanbul Basaksehir.

As for the visitors, Jamie Shackleton, Adam Forshaw and Charlie Cresswell were all dealing with various issues before the international break, but the trio are expected to return to the fold here.

On a more negative note, Patrick Bamford is still on the sidelines with his foot injury, and he is also joined in the treatment room by Junior Firpo, Liam Cooper and Kalvin Phillips.

Raphinha will aim to shake off a minor injury sustained with Brazil in time to make the cut this weekend, with Tyler Roberts and Joe Gelhardt waiting in the wings if necessary.

Aston Villa possible starting lineup:
Martinez; Cash, Konsa, Mings, Digne; McGinn, Luiz, Ramsey; Buendia, Watkins, Coutinho

Leeds United possible starting lineup:
Meslier; Ayling, Llorente, Koch, Dallas; Klich, Forshaw; Raphinha, Rodrigo, Harrison; James


SM words green background

We say: Aston Villa 2-1 Leeds United

Villa have been busy boosting their squad while Leeds' medical staff continue to welcome new faces into the treatment room, which does not bode well at all for Bielsa.

We would not put it past the Whites to make the net ripple even without Bamford leading the charge, but Villa's upwards momentum should continue with a hard-fought three points on their own turf.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting over 2.5 goals in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Over 2.5:data



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 38.4%. A win for Leeds United had a probability of 34.31% and a draw had a probability of 27.3%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.2%) and 2-0 (6.93%). The likeliest Leeds United win was 0-1 (10.19%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Aston Villa vs Leeds

Aston Villa
80.6%
Draw
9.7%
Leeds United
9.7%
248
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Aston Villa's Matty Cash pictured in December 2021
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24Hull City2037101828-1016


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