Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Louis City win with a probability of 40.96%. A win for Portland Timbers had a probability of 34.58% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Louis City win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.09%) and 2-0 (6.26%). The likeliest Portland Timbers win was 1-2 (7.97%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Louis City would win this match.