Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 55.7%. A win for Barcelona had a probability of 22.16% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.71%). The likeliest Barcelona win was 1-2 (5.82%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.27%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.