Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 29.23% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.52%) and 2-0 (8.28%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 0-1 (9.9%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.99%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood.