Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 49.7%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 25.61% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.52%) and 0-2 (8.71%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-0 (7.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.73%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.