Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a The New Saints win with a probability of 69.86%. A draw had a probability of 16.4% and a win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 13.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a The New Saints win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.15%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.31%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.99%), while for a Connah's Quay Nomads win it was 1-2 (3.85%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that The New Saints would win this match.