Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a NEC win with a probability of 53.75%. A win for RKC Waalwijk had a probability of 25.22% and a draw had a probability of 21%.
The most likely scoreline for a NEC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (6.74%) and 3-1 (6.53%). The likeliest RKC Waalwijk win was 1-2 (6.2%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.93%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for NEC in this match.