Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gimnasia win with a probability of 39.74%. A win for Argentinos Juniors had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gimnasia win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.02%) and 2-0 (7.66%). The likeliest Argentinos Juniors win was 0-1 (10.96%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.26%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Gimnasia in this match.