Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Krasnodar win with a probability of 70.8%. A draw had a probability of 19.1% and a win for Fakel had a probability of 10.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Krasnodar win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (14.4%) and 3-0 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.84%), while for a Fakel win it was 0-1 (4.35%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that FC Krasnodar would win this match.