Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 57%. A draw had a probability of 25.3% and a win for Drogheda United had a probability of 17.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.19%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.56%), while for a Drogheda United win it was 0-1 (7.39%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Dundalk would win this match.