Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensor Sporting win with a probability of 48.57%. A draw had a probability of 27.4% and a win for Deportivo Maldonado had a probability of 24.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensor Sporting win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.89%) and 2-1 (8.79%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.65%), while for a Deportivo Maldonado win it was 0-1 (9.11%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensor Sporting would win this match.