Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a De Graafschap win with a probability of 47.58%. A win for Vitesse had a probability of 30.28% and a draw had a probability of 22.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a De Graafschap win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.34%) and 2-0 (6.06%). The likeliest Vitesse win was 1-2 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.47%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that De Graafschap would win this match.