Under-20s World Cup | Round of 16
May 31, 2023 at 6.30pm UK
Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo
We said: Brazil Under-20s 3-0 Tunisia Under-20s
Failing to score in four of their last five games does not bode well for Tunisia against one of the tournament favourites, and nor does the enforced absence of their captain, leaving Louhichi somewhat short in the middle of defence.
Brazil did not exactly play Nigeria off the park last time out, but we cannot see Tunisia springing any surprises in La Plata and expect the South American champions to advance to the last eight with relative ease.
Read more.Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brazil Under-20s win with a probability of 62.3%. A draw had a probability of 20.4% and a win for Tunisia Under-20s had a probability of 17.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brazil Under-20s win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 1-0 (9.52%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.54%), while for a Tunisia Under-20s win it was 1-2 (4.77%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Brazil Under-20s would win this match.
| Result |
| Brazil Under-20s | Draw | Tunisia Under-20s |
62.3% ( 0.5) | 20.4% ( -0.19) | 17.3% ( -0.31) |
| Both teams to score 55.39% ( 0.03) |
| 59.57% ( 0.34) | 40.42% ( -0.34) |
| 37.2% ( 0.35) | 62.79% ( -0.35) |
| 87.56% ( 0.25) | 12.43% ( -0.25) |
