Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cyprus win with a probability of 38.15%. A win for Bosnia-Herzegovina had a probability of 35.88% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cyprus win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.39%) and 0-2 (6.4%). The likeliest Bosnia-Herzegovina win was 1-0 (9.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Bosnia-Herzegovina would win this match.