Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 44.81%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 31.88% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.34%) and 0-2 (6.35%). The likeliest Monaco win was 2-1 (7.5%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.