Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tranmere Rovers win with a probability of 42.59%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 31.4% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tranmere Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.87%) and 0-2 (7.43%). The likeliest Newport County win was 1-0 (8.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Tranmere Rovers would win this match.