Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Salford City win with a probability of 41.97%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 32.62% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Salford City win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.46%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.88%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (8.15%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Salford City would win this match.