Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 42.02%. A win for Morecambe had a probability of 32.81% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.9%) and 0-2 (6.87%). The likeliest Morecambe win was 1-0 (7.93%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.