Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 44.72%. A win for Barnet had a probability of 28% and a draw had a probability of 27.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.14%) and 2-0 (8.12%). The likeliest Barnet win was 0-1 (8.86%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.89%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.