Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 44%. A win for Harrogate Town had a probability of 30.76% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.08%) and 0-2 (7.39%). The likeliest Harrogate Town win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.95%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.