Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Gillingham win with a probability of 44.08%. A win for Shrewsbury Town had a probability of 29.97% and a draw had a probability of 25.92%.
The most likely scoreline for a Gillingham win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.8%) and 2-0 (7.85%). The likeliest Shrewsbury Town win was 0-1 (8.12%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.79%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.6% likelihood.