Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bristol Rovers win with a probability of 43.14%. A win for Carlisle United had a probability of 30.11% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bristol Rovers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.78%) and 0-2 (7.91%). The likeliest Carlisle United win was 1-0 (9.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.69%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood.