Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Wigan Athletic win with a probability of 65.77%. A draw had a probability of 20.6% and a win for Gillingham had a probability of 13.63%.
The most likely scoreline for a Wigan Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.59%) and 2-1 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.77%), while for a Gillingham win it was 0-1 (4.95%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Wigan Athletic would win this match.