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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 39.47%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 33.66% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.41%) and 0-2 (7.03%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-0 (9.69%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Swindon Town | Draw | MK Dons |
| 33.66% | 26.87% | 39.47% |
| Both teams to score 51.05% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 45.93% | 54.07% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 24.5% | 75.49% |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.73% | 30.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 33.56% | 66.44% |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.21% | 26.79% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.92% | 62.07% |
| Score Analysis |
| Swindon Town | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 9.69% 2-1 @ 7.63% 2-0 @ 5.79% 3-1 @ 3.04% 3-0 @ 2.31% 3-2 @ 2% 4-1 @ 0.91% Other @ 2.3% Total : 33.66% | 1-1 @ 12.76% 0-0 @ 8.11% 2-2 @ 5.02% Other @ 0.97% Total : 26.86% | 0-1 @ 10.68% 1-2 @ 8.41% 0-2 @ 7.03% 1-3 @ 3.69% 0-3 @ 3.09% 2-3 @ 2.21% 1-4 @ 1.22% 0-4 @ 1.02% Other @ 2.13% Total : 39.47% |