Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Portsmouth win with a probability of 59.56%. A draw had a probability of 21.9% and a win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 18.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Portsmouth win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.33%) and 1-2 (9.93%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.4%), while for a Crewe Alexandra win it was 1-0 (5.45%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Portsmouth would win this match.