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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a MK Dons win with a probability of 49.36%. A win for Crewe Alexandra had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a MK Dons win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.68%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.5%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Crewe Alexandra win was 1-0 (7.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.75%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that MK Dons would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | MK Dons |
| 25.9% | 24.74% | 49.36% |
| Both teams to score 53.48% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.05% | 48.94% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 28.97% | 71.03% |
| Crewe Alexandra Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 66.73% | 33.27% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.12% | 69.88% |
| MK Dons Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.14% | 19.86% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.04% | 51.96% |
| Score Analysis |
| Crewe Alexandra | Draw | MK Dons |
| 1-0 @ 7.27% 2-1 @ 6.47% 2-0 @ 4% 3-1 @ 2.37% 3-2 @ 1.92% 3-0 @ 1.47% Other @ 2.4% Total : 25.9% | 1-1 @ 11.75% 0-0 @ 6.61% 2-2 @ 5.23% 3-3 @ 1.03% Other @ 0.12% Total : 24.74% | 0-1 @ 10.68% 1-2 @ 9.5% 0-2 @ 8.63% 1-3 @ 5.12% 0-3 @ 4.65% 2-3 @ 2.82% 1-4 @ 2.07% 0-4 @ 1.88% 2-4 @ 1.14% Other @ 2.87% Total : 49.36% |