Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sunderland win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 28.17% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sunderland win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.23%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.32%) and 0-2 (8.03%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 1-0 (7.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.