Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 43.09%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 29.81% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.69%) and 2-0 (8.05%). The likeliest Derry City win was 0-1 (9.46%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Patrick's Athletic would win this match.