Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 64.9%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Shelbourne had a probability of 13.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.01%) and 2-1 (9.49%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%), while for a Shelbourne win it was 0-1 (5.32%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.3% likelihood.