Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 46.25%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Shelbourne had a probability of 26.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.7%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.24%) and 1-2 (8.67%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.85%), while for a Shelbourne win it was 1-0 (9.53%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood.