LDU Quito welcome Velez Sarsfield to Ecuador on Tuesday, as the sides both look to record their first win of the Copa Libertadores group stage.
The hosts come into this game with a point in the group, having drawn their first game with Union La Calera, while the Argentinian outfit lost narrowly to Flamengo last week.
Match preview
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LDU Quito kicked off their Copa Libertadores campaign with a trip to Union La Calera last time out.
The Ecuadorian side went behind on two separate occasions, but a brace from Billy Arce levelled the game and salvaged a point for his side in a 2-2 draw.
That means LDU Quito have now drawn six of their last seven games in all competitions, winning the other game 1-0 at home to Manta thanks to a 91st-minute winner from Djorkaeff Reasco.
As a result of their series of dropped points, Pablo Repetto's side are yet to get going in league action, currently sitting in fifth spot in the Ecuadorian Serie A.
LDU Quito will look to break that run of draws with what would be a crucial victory on Tuesday, as they aim to go into pole position for qualification to the final 16.
Their opponents will also be desperate for a first win of the continental campaign, after a disappointing loss to Flamengo in the last group game.
Velez Sarsfield twice took the lead through a Lucas Janson brace, but goals from Willian Arao, Gabriel Barbosa and Giorgian De Arrascaeta condemned them to a 3-2 defeat in Buenos Aires.
El Fortin did get back to winning ways last time out though, as they came from behind to defeat Lanus 2-1 away from home in the Argentine Primera Division.
Alexandro Bernabei put the hosts ahead early in the second half, but Federico Mancuello equalised before Matias de los Santos netted the equaliser in the 89th minute.
That meant they held onto the top spot in the Argentine Primera Division Group B, currently sitting six points ahead of second-placed Boca Juniors with two games left to play in the first phase of the domestic league.
They now switch their attention to the Copa Libertadores, as they look to quickly bounce back from the opening defeat and give themselves a good chance of qualification with a victory.
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Team News
LDU Quito's line will be led by Billy Arce, who netted a brace in their 2-2 draw with Union La Calera.
He is expected to be joined by Cristian Martinez, who has scored five goals in his nine league appearances this campaign.
At the other end of the pitch, Franklin Guerra and Moises Corozo should partner up again at the heart of a back four.
Velez Sarsfield will be without midfielder Federico Mancuello for this game, as he will serve a suspension for a red card shown late in the 3-2 defeat to Flamengo.
Mauricio Pellegrino rested the majority of his players for the latest league game, with Tuesday's cup match in mind.
That means the likes of Lucas Janson, Juan Martin Lucero, Santiago Caseres and Lautaro Giannetti will all return to the starting lineup.
LDU Quito possible starting lineup:
Gabbarini; Perlaza, Guerra, Corozo, Cruz; Zunino, Alcivar, Piovi, Ayala; Arce, Martinez
Velez Sarsfield possible starting lineup:
Hoyos; Giannetti, Abram, Brizuella; Guidara, Galdames, Caseres, Ortega; Almada, Lucero, Jansen
We say: LDU Quito 2-1 Velez Sarsfield
In what should be a fascinating game between two sides on a fairly level playing field, we see the hosts just edging it and picking up all three points on Tuesday.
Their recent run of form has shown that LDU Quito are very difficult to beat, and we expect that to continue with a crucial win on home turf.
Top tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a LDU Quito win with a probability of 41.92%. A win for Velez Sarsfield had a probability of 35.56% and a draw had a probability of 22.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a LDU Quito win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (5.85%) and 2-0 (5.23%). The likeliest Velez Sarsfield win was 1-2 (7.8%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.55%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that LDU Quito would win this match.
