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Lazio logo
Serie A | Gameweek 28
Jun 27, 2020 at 8.45pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Fiorentina logo

Lazio
2 - 1
Fiorentina

Immobile (67' pen.), Alberto (83')
Parolo (7'), Milinkovic-Savic (24'), Bastos (45'), Jony (55'), Radu (79')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Ribery (25')
Henrique (5'), Milenkovic (32')

Preview: Lazio vs. Fiorentina - predictions, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Saturday's Serie A clash between Lazio and Fiorentina, including team news and predicted lineups.

Lazio will be aiming to revive their Serie A title hopes on Saturday when they play host to Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico.

Lazio currently lie four points adrift of leaders Juventus as things stand, while Fiorentina sit in 14th on 31 points - six clear of the relegation zone.


Match preview

Lazio head coach Simone Inzaghi pictured in November 2018© Reuters

The clash between two high-flying sides in Lazio and Atalanta promised to be a truly thrilling affair, and the game certainly lived up to its expectations. However, it would be Simone Inzaghi's men that would eventually come out on the wrong end of the scoreline.

Lazio stormed into an early lead thanks to Marten de Roon's own goal and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic's strike, but Atalanta pegged it back with goals from Robin Gosens and Ruslan Malinovskiy before Jose Palomino's 80th-minute header completed a phenomenal comeback for Gian Piero Gasperini's side at an empty Gewiss Stadium.

As a result, Lazio's title hopes have taken a huge hit after their 21-match unbeaten run was brought to an end, and Juventus can establish a seven-point lead at the top of the rankings should they overcome a struggling Lecce side on Friday evening.

However, Inzaghi's side are now set to return to familiar surroundings at the Stadio Olimpico for the first time since February - a place where Lazio are yet to taste defeat during the 2019-20 campaign.

Meanwhile, Fiorentina drew their third game in succession upon the return of Serie A as they were forced to settle for a point against the league's basement side Brescia on Monday.

The result means that Giuseppe Iachini's side have now gone their last four unbeaten in the Italian top flight, as they shared the spoils with Udinese and AC Milan after subjecting Sampdoria to a 5-1 drubbing before the lockdown period.

However, there is no getting away from the fact that it has been a disappointing campaign from a Fiorentina side that were consistent top-half finishers in the early 2010s, although they should improve on last season's 16th-placed finish with relative ease.

La Viola are unlikely to be in any real danger of relegation heading into the business end of the season, but Fiorentina have only won two of their last nine fixtures on the road - and they are facing an uphill task this weekend against a formidable Lazio side.

Goals from Joaquin Correa and Ciro Immobile either side of a Federico Chiesa strike gave Lazio a 2-1 win when the sides faced off in the reverse fixture.

Lazio Serie A form: DWWWWL

Fiorentina Serie A form: LLWDDD


Team News

Fiorentina winger Federico Chiesa pictured in December 2019© Reuters

Inzaghi may opt to make a few changes to his Lazio side in order to cope with the hectic fixture schedule.

Jordan Lukaku made his long-awaited return to action off the bench against Atalanta and could be involved from the first whistle, while Felipe Caicedo and Marco Parolo are both pushing for starting roles after Correa and Danilo Cataldi were forced off on Wednesday.

However, Lucas Leiva, Luiz Felipe, Senad Lulic and Bobby Adekanye are all nursing injuries and are set to watch from the sidelines on Saturday.

Fiorentina will have to make do without the highly-rated Chiesa as he serves a suspension, with defender Martin Caceres sharing the same fate after his sending off against Brescia.

Christian Kouame also remains on the treatment table with a cruciate ligament rupture.

Chiesa's absence opens up a spot for on-loan Leicester City midfielder Rachid Ghezzal to start on the right flank, despite the fact that he was hauled off only six minutes after being subbed on against Brescia.

Lazio possible starting lineup:
Strakosha; Patric, Acerbi, Bastos; Lazzarri, Milinkovic-Savic, Parolo, Alberto, Lukaku; Immobile, Caicedo

Fiorentina possible starting lineup:
Dragowski; Lirola, Milenkovic, Pezzella, Dalbert; Duncan, Pulgar, Castrovilli; Ghezzal, Vlahovic, Ribery


Sports Mole Logo

We say: Lazio 2-0 Fiorentina

The Serie A title race is far from done and dusted, and Lazio will definitely believe they are still in with a fighting chance despite the defeat to Atalanta. Fiorentina's recent performances have left a lot to be desired and we expect Inzaghi's men to pick up all three points relatively trouble-free.



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lazio win with a probability of 56.63%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Fiorentina had a probability of 20.95%.

The most likely scoreline for a Lazio win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.91%) and 2-0 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.55%), while for a Fiorentina win it was 0-1 (5.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Lazio would win this match.


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