Preview: Latvia vs Gibraltar - prediction, team news, lineups

Latvia will welcome Gibraltar to the Skonto Stadium for Tuesday's UEFA Nations League promotion/relegation playoff.

The hosts carry a slender lead into the second leg after recording a narrow 1-0 victory in Gibraltar on Thursday.

Match preview

After winning promotion in the 2022-23 Nations League, Latvia are battling to avoid an immediate return to League D - the fourth and bottom tier of the league system.

They dropped into the promotion/relegation playoffs after mustering just four points from six games, leaving them bottom of a group that contained North Macedonia, Armenia and the Faroe Islands.

Latvia and their playoff opponents, Gibraltar, have had to wait a long while to commence battle due to the fact that a World Cup qualifying campaign has taken place between the end of the Nations League group phase and the start of the playoffs.

Paolo Nicolato's side recorded one victory, two draws and five defeats in their unsuccessful qualifying bid, resulting in a fourth-place finish in a group that saw England finish in first spot and Albania clinch a playoff berth.

While qualification was improbable for a team ranked 139th in the world, Latvia will believe they should prevail in their current Nations League playoff tie against Gibraltar, especially as they boast a 1-0 advantage from the first leg following Vladislavs Gutkovskis' second-half penalty.

Latvia have now won each of their previous three meetings with Tuesday's opponents, including a 3-1 success in their most recent home game against Gibraltar in September 2021. 

© Imago / Pixsell

After suffering relegation from League C in 2022-23, Gibraltar need to overturn a narrow first-leg deficit if they are to achieve promotion at the first time of asking.

Gibraltar fell a point short of San Marino in the race for automatic promotion, despite beating the Group D1 winners 1-0 on home soil.

However, a 1-1 scoreline in San Marino and draws home and away against Liechtenstein proved costly in their automatic promotion bid.

The team ranked 202nd in the world failed to make an impression in last year's World Cup qualifying campaign, losing all eight matches as they finished bottom of a group that contained Croatia, the Czech Republic, the Faroe Islands and Montenegro. 

The narrow defeat to Latvia represented an 11th consecutive defeat since Gibraltar played out a 1-1 draw with Moldova in November 2011.

With a deficit to overturn, the visitors will head into Tuesday's second leg with hopes of claiming their first win over Latvia since recording a 1-0 victory in a friendly in March 2013. 

Latvia Nations League form:

Latvia form (all competitions):

Gibraltar Nations League form:

Gibraltar form (all competitions):

Team News

© Imago / Grubisic

As long as there are no new injury issues, Nicolato could decide to stick with the same Latvia team that started the successful first leg in Gibraltar.

That would see the hosts like up with a back three of Daniels Balodis, Antonijs Cernomordijs and Roberts Veips.

Gutkovskis will be looking to continue his fine form at international level, having three goals in his last five appearances for his country.

As for the visitors, 18-year-old defender Kai Mauro is an option if Scott Wiseman decides to alter his backline for the second leg. 

James Scalon, who is currently on loan at Swindon Town from Manchester United, should continue to operate on the left flank as he looks to add to the two goals he has scored at the international level.

Meanwhile, Dylan Borge will be hoping to get the nod over Jaiden Bartolo in the battle for the number nine spot. 

Latvia possible starting lineup:

Matrevics; Balodis, Cernomordijs, Veips; Jurkovskis, Vapne, Zelenkovs, Ciganiks; Ikaunieks, Varslavans, Gutkovskis

Gibraltar possible starting lineup:

Hankins; Richards, Lopes, Bent, Mauro, Valarino; Del Rio, Pozo, Torrilla, Scanlon; Borge

We say: Latvia 2-0 Gibraltar (Latvia to win 3-0 on aggregate)

Latvia have a strong foundation to build from after winning 1-0 in Gibraltar, and with home advantage now in their favour, we think they will see the job through by claiming a relatively comfortable victory on Tuesday. 

For data analysis of the most likely results, scorelines and more for this match please click here.