Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Latvia win with a probability of 51.45%. A win for Gibraltar had a probability of 25.82% and a draw had a probability of 22.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Latvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.83%) and 0-2 (8.63%). The likeliest Gibraltar win was 1-0 (6.75%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.2%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.