Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Villarreal win with a probability of 60.61%. A draw had a probability of 22.4% and a win for Celta Vigo had a probability of 16.97%.
The most likely scoreline for a Villarreal win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.47%) and 2-1 (9.77%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for a Celta Vigo win it was 0-1 (5.8%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Villarreal in this match.