Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Celta Vigo win with a probability of 47.26%. A win for Sevilla had a probability of 27.06% and a draw had a probability of 25.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Celta Vigo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (8.56%). The likeliest Sevilla win was 0-1 (8.06%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.21%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Celta Vigo would win this match.