Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 55.04%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Alaves had a probability of 19.96%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.01%) and 2-1 (9.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for an Alaves win it was 0-1 (7.33%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 11% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-0 win for Athletic Bilbao in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Athletic Bilbao.