Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 46.37%. A win for Las Palmas had a probability of 26.9% and a draw had a probability of 26.7%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletic Bilbao win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.97%) and 0-2 (8.85%). The likeliest Las Palmas win was 1-0 (8.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.62%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Athletic Bilbao would win this match.