FC Koln could confirm their impressive qualification for continental football next season when they welcome Wolfsburg to the RheinEnergieStadion in the Bundesliga on Saturday.
The hosts have continued their remarkable rise this season thanks to a four-game winning streak, whilst the visitors conceded a late equaliser to drop two more points last weekend during their disappointing campaign.
Match preview
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Goals from Jan Thielmann, Mark Uth, and a brace from Anthony Modeste, made it four consecutive wins, and four consecutive games with at least three goals scored, for Koln last weekend.
The latest flurry of goals arrived in a 4-1 win at relegation-threatened Augsburg, with their usually strong home record now being backed up by success on the road in recent weeks too.
Three of the five league victories on the road this campaign have been recorded in the last four away games for Steffen Baumgart's side, but Saturday's hosts must now prepare to return to the RheinEnergieStadion for their final outing of the campaign in front of the home faithful.
A raucous atmosphere is likely to be created once again at this difficult venue, as the Billy Goats continue their resurgence under Baumgart this campaign and go in search of continental football, just 12 months after narrowly avoiding relegation to the 2.Bundesliga.
The DFB-Pokal final being played between RB Leipzig and Freiburg means that seventh spot has also been opened up as a European qualification place in addition to the top six, and with Koln occupying sixth place and boasting a six-point advantage over eighth-placed Hoffenheim heading into matchday 33, they have all but secured a remarkable achievement.
Baumgart will not let his players ease off and settle just yet though, with there still remaining a slim possibility that his organised side can upset the odds to reach the Champions League places.
Just three points separate Koln from Freiburg in fourth at the time of writing, and with Christian Streich's side facing difficult tests against Union Berlin and Bayer Leverkusen in their final two fixtures, and with fifth-placed Leipzig suffering back-to-back defeats, Saturday's hosts could yet sneak into the top four should they pick up a fifth consecutive win when they host struggling Wolfsburg at the weekend.
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Whilst the visitors were targeting to be in a similar position to their hosts at this stage of the season before a ball was kicked back in August, the reality is that a hugely disappointing campaign has left them closer to the relegation zone than to the European places heading into the penultimate weekend.
A couple of big wins on home soil in recent weeks have lifted some of the doom and gloom ever so slightly, but Die Wolfe have continued to be a difficult side to watch this season.
Away from home has been a particular struggle for Florian Kohfeldt's men, with just one win being recorded from their last 12 outings on the road in all competitions, eight of which have ended in defeat.
Therefore, a daunting trip to the RheinEnergieStadion is unlikely to lift their spirits too high this weekend, having also thrown away a 2-1 lead to lose 3-2 in the dying stages of the home meeting with Koln back in December.
A 1-1 draw at relegation-threatened Stuttgart was the latest of Wolfsburg's winless games on the road, although only an 89th-minute equaliser from Chris Fuhrich denied the Wolves all three points in an even contest last weekend.
Much of the focus will have already been switched to the summer ahead of a targeted improvement in the 2022-23 campaign, but many players, as well as the manager, could well be playing for their futures at the club across the final two games of the season.
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Team News
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With Salih Ozcan returning from a one-match suspension, Koln could have just the one absentee to contend with on Saturday.
Sebastian Andersson remains labelled as a doubt due to COVID-19, but with no fresh injury concerns, Baumgart has a near full-strength side to choose from.
The expected absence of the Swede means that Thielmann should continue to support Modeste in attack, with the latter having netted four goals and registered three assists in his last five appearances, to take his tally to 19 goals and three assists in the Bundesliga this season.
However, the return of Ozcan could see Thielmann revert to a deeper role, should Baumgart choose to bring the defensive midfielder back into his starting lineup immediately.
As for the visitors, William, Paulo Otavio and Luca Waldschmidt remain on the sidelines until next season.
Sebastiaan Bornauw missed out on last weekend's draw due to a back problem, and the defender remains a doubt to face his former side at the weekend.
Jerome Roussillon and Yannick Gerhardt were both forced off with knocks at Stuttgart, but the duo are expected to be fit and available in an expected unchanged starting 11 from Kohfeldt.
FC Koln possible starting lineup:
Schwabe; Schmitz, Kilian, Hubers, Hector; Skhiri, Ozcan; Thielmann, Uth, Kainz; Modeste
Wolfsburg possible starting lineup:
Casteels; Baku, Lacroix, Brooks, Roussillon; Schlager, Arnold, Gerhardt; Wind, Kruse; L Nmecha
We say: FC Koln 3-1 Wolfsburg
With Koln being the in-form side in the Bundesliga and possessing a strong record at home, we are predicting a comfortable home win on Saturday.
The visitors have been terribly inconsistent and have performed well below the expected standards for much of the campaign, particularly on their travels, so it is difficult to see how they are going to cope with the intensity and aggressiveness that they will be inevitably put under by the hosts here.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a FC Koln win with a probability of 60%. A draw had a probability of 21.3% and a win for Wolfsburg had a probability of 18.73%.
The most likely scoreline for a FC Koln win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.79%) and 2-0 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.98%), while for a Wolfsburg win it was 1-2 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a FC Koln win with a probability of 60%. A draw has a probability of 21.3% and a win for Wolfsburg has a probability of 18.73%.
The most likely scoreline is FC Koln 1-1 Wolfsburg with a probability of 9.98% and the second most likely scoreline is FC Koln 2-1 Wolfsburg with a probability of 9.96%.
Top tip
Matthew Tranter
