Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Kashima Antlers win with a probability of 52.11%. A draw had a probability of 24.6% and a win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Kashima Antlers win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.59%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.6%) and 0-2 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.7%), while for a Sagan Tosu win it was 1-0 (7.14%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.