Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jubilo Iwata win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for Albirex Niigata had a probability of 32.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jubilo Iwata win was 1-0 with a probability of 10%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.83%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Albirex Niigata win was 0-1 (8.54%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.28%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jubilo Iwata would win this match.