Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Consadole Sapporo win with a probability of 47.11%. A win for Sagan Tosu had a probability of 28.63% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Consadole Sapporo win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.22%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Sagan Tosu win was 1-2 (7.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 5-3 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Consadole Sapporo would win this match.