Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cerezo Osaka win with a probability of 41.94%. A win for Avispa Fukuoka had a probability of 31.28% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cerezo Osaka win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.67%) and 2-0 (7.61%). The likeliest Avispa Fukuoka win was 0-1 (9.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.71%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cerezo Osaka would win this match.