Iraq and Iran will square off in an important clash on Tuesday, as they meet in the third round of the Asian World Cup Qualifiers.
Both nations progressed through Group B in the second round of the Qualifiers, with each team taking a victory over the opponents in that group.
Match preview
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Iraq had an impressive display in the second round of Asian World Cup Qualifiers, beginning in 2019 with a draw against Bahrain, followed by consecutive victories over Hong Kong, Cambodia and Iran.
In the latter, Alaa Abbas netted a 92nd-minute winner to see the Lions of Mesopotamia take all three points from their rivals, after Mohanad Ali had given them an initial lead.
They would then hold on to top spot thanks to wins over Cambodia and Hong Kong, with a defeat to Iran in the final game not enough to see them fall to second spot.
Dick Advocaat's side began the third round with a trip to South Korea, and they earned a commendable point after a goalless draw.
They will now look to put their first three-point haul on the board to strengthen their position in Group A with a spot in next year's tournament on the line.
They take on an Iran side who come in on the back of an opening victory, after closing out the second round with a win over Tuesday's opponents.
Team Melli began the second round in style, beating Hong Kong away from home and thrashing Cambodia 14-0 on home turf, their largest victory since 2000, as Karim Ansarifard hit four goals alongside a Sardar Azmoun hat-trick, braces from Mehdi Taremi and Mohammad Mohebi and goals from Ahmad Nourollahi, Hossein Kanaanizadegan and Mehrdad Mohammadi.
They then suffered back-to-back defeats at the hands of Bahrain and Iraq, before bouncing back in style with wins over Hong Kong and Bahrain and a 10-0 thrashing of Cambodia.
While it did not seal top spot in the group, Dragan Skokic's men capped off the second round with a hard-fought 1-0 win over Tuesday's opponents, as Sardar Azmoun netted the only goal of the game to see Iran gain revenge on their rivals and qualify in second place.
Team Melli then began the third round with their fifth straight win in the Qualifiers, as Alireza Jahanbakhsh fired them to a 1-0 home victory over Syria, and Skokic will be hopeful of his side making it two wins from two when they face Iraq for the third time in the campaign.
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Team News
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Iraq battled hard to keep a clean sheet in South Korea, meaning Dick Advocaat should avoid making wholesale changes to his side.
The back four of Sherko Gubari, Ahmad Ibrahim, Ali Faez and Ali Adnan should remain untouched, shielding Fahad Talib between the sticks.
Young forward Mohanad Ali will be hoping for a starting spot, having hit an impressive tally of 17 goals in 36 appearances for his nation.
Iran boast plenty of attacking talent, with Feyenoord attacker Alireza Jahanbakhsh set to keep his place after a goal last time out, while Brentford forward Saman Ghoddos also offers threat in the final third.
The line will be led by Porto star Mehdi Taremi, who has 24 international goals to his name from 51 caps.
At the other end of the pitch, Hossein Kanaanizadegan and Shojae Khalilzadeh should again parter up at the heart of a back four after a strong showing in the 1-0 win over Syria.
Iraq possible starting lineup:
Talib; Gubari, Ibrahim, Faez, Adnan; Attwan, Al-Ammari; Majid, Rasan, Bayesh; Ali
Iran possible starting lineup:
Beiranvand; Salmani, Kanaanizadegan, Khalilzadeh, Amiri; Nourollahi, Sarlak; Gholizadeh, Ghoddos, Jahanbakhsh; Taremi
We say: Iraq 0-1 Iran
In a game between two sides renowned for being strong at the back, this could certainly come down to one goal splitting the nations, as it did in both second-round meetings.
While they do not have the benefit of home advantage, we still see Iran having enough attacking power to get over the line against a resolute outfit.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Iran win with a probability of 41.2%. A win for Iraq had a probability of 33.77% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Iran win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.82%) and 0-2 (6.62%). The likeliest Iraq win was 1-0 (7.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.77%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 3.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Iran would win this match.
