Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tajikistan win with a probability of 49.33%. A draw had a probability of 26.95% and a win for India had a probability of 23.69%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tajikistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.22%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.19%) , while for a India win it was 0-1 (8.84%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.