Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Russia win with a probability of 64.29%. A draw had a probability of 21.67% and a win for Burkina Faso had a probability of 14.03%.
The most likely scoreline for a Russia win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.09%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.76%) and 2-1 (10.01%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.62%) , while for a Burkina Faso win it was 0-1 (5.34%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 7.6% likelihood.