Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Burkina Faso win with a probability of 72.51%. A draw had a probability of 17.94% and a win for Guinea-Bissau had a probability of 9.57%.
The most likely scoreline for a Burkina Faso win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.26%) and 3-0 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.97%) , while for a Guinea-Bissau win it was 0-1 (4.28%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood.