Friendlies 1

Mar 27, 2024 at 1.30am UK

Estadio Monumental

Peru
4 - 1
Dominican Rep.

Pena (18', 18'), Castillo (45+1', 45+1'), Quispe (54', 54'), Guerrero (90+4' pen., 90+4' pen.)
Castillo (52'), Castillo (52'), Cartagena (83'), Cartagena (83')

FT(HT: 4-0)

Carlos Lopez (58', 58')
Japa (65'), Japa (65')

The Match

Preview

Sports Mole previews Wednesday's friendly clash between Peru and Dominican Republic, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Form, Standings, Stats

Peru

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Peru 2-0 Nicaragua
Saturday, March 23 at 1.30am in International Friendlies

Current CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Argentina	6	6	15
2	Uruguay	6	8	13
3	Colombia	6	3	12
4	Ecuador	6	2	11
5	Venezuela	6	3	9
6	Brazil	6	1	7
7	Paraguay	6	-2	5
8	Chile	6	-4	5
9	Bolivia	6	-10	3
10	Peru	6	-7	2

Dominican Republic

All competitions

International Friendlies

Last Game: Dominican Rep. 0-0 Aruba
Saturday, March 23 at 10pm in International Friendlies

Current League B Group B Standings		P	GD	PTS
1	Nicaragua	0	0	0
2	Dominican Republic	0	0	0
3	Barbados	0	0	0
4	Montserrat	0	0	0

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Peru win with a probability of 40.13%. A win for Dominican Republic had a probability of 31.69% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Peru win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.16%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest Dominican Republic win was 0-1 (10.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Peru would win this match.

Result
Peru	Draw	Dominican Republic
40.13% ( -0.6)	28.18% ( 0.21)	31.69% ( 0.4)

Both teams to score 46.62% (

-0.45)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

40.58% (

-0.63)

59.41% (

0.63)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

20.21% (

-0.48)

79.79% (

0.48)

Peru Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.04% (

-0.64)

28.96% (

0.64)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

35.15% (

-0.81)

64.85% (

0.8)

Dominican Republic Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

65.63% (

-0.04)

34.37% (

0.04)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

28.92% (

-0.05)

71.08% (

0.05)

Score Analysis

Peru 40.12%

Dominican Republic 31.69%

Draw 28.18%

Peru	Draw	Dominican Republic
1-0 @ 12.33% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 8.16% ( -0.11) 2-0 @ 7.64% ( -0.09) 3-1 @ 3.37% ( -0.11) 3-0 @ 3.16% ( -0.1) 3-2 @ 1.8% ( -0.06) 4-1 @ 1.05% ( -0.05) 4-0 @ 0.98% ( -0.05) Other @ 1.63% Total : 40.12%	1-1 @ 13.17% ( 0.06) 0-0 @ 9.95% ( 0.23) 2-2 @ 4.36% ( -0.06) Other @ 0.7% Total : 28.18%	0-1 @ 10.63% ( 0.24) 1-2 @ 7.03% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 5.68% ( 0.12) 1-3 @ 2.5% ( 0) 0-3 @ 2.02% ( 0.04) 2-3 @ 1.55% ( -0.02) Other @ 2.27% Total : 31.69%