Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Uzbekistan win with a probability of 61.45%. A draw had a probability of 21.8% and a win for Kyrgyzstan had a probability of 16.78%.
The most likely scoreline for a Uzbekistan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.22%) and 2-1 (9.85%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.35%), while for a Kyrgyzstan win it was 0-1 (5.44%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Uzbekistan would win this match.